Citigroup Panic/Euphoria Index
The Citigroup Panic/Euphoria Index, is a reliable contrarian indicator for market sentiment. The index has now reached a new high over the past year in 'Euphoria'. According to Citi, the index is at .86, which is more than double the .41 where euphoria kicks in. Historically, a reading in euphoria levels generate a better than 80% probability of stock prices being lower one year later, while panic supports a better than 95% likelihood that stock prices will be higher one year later.