BLS Jobs Report
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that were 372,000 jobs created in June, which was stronger than expectations of 250,000. There was a -74,000 revision to April and May, which tempers the optimism slightly.
While the headline looked strong, the household survey told a different picture. The Unemployment Rate remained at 3.6% for the fourth month in a row, as expected, but it is derived from the household survey, which has its own job creation component. Within the household survey there were 315,000 job losses, which is a big discrepancy from the headline number. Even though there were job losses, the labor force decreased by 353,000, which is a similar number to the job losses, which is why the unemployment rate remained the same. It is important to note that it remained at 3.6% for the wrong reasons. The labor force participation decreased slightly from 62.3% to 62.2%.
The real unemployment rate is higher than 3.6%, but the U-3, which is what everyone looks at, and removes individuals who are not actively searching for a job - There are almost 6 million people that are not being counted that “want a job” but have not looked in the last four weeks.
The U-6 all-in unemployment rate, which adds back all these individuals, decreased significantly from 7.1% to 6.7%.
Average hourly earnings were up 0.3% in June and are up 5.1% year over year. Average weekly earnings are up 4.2% year over year. When looking at average hourly earnings, if you remove the bottom quartile, earnings are up closer to 8% year over year.